2007年12月18日星期二

人生如投資難測 何必自殺

  不管我們認為黃葵香的自盡是可悲抑或愚蠢,畢竟這是他個人的選擇,決定放棄自己整段(未確定)的前程,來換取那一刻得以放下重擔的機會。

  僅僅18歲,黃與智障母親同住,照顧12歲的妹妹,因搬家欠下一筆卡數,還被社署追討2萬元綜援金在個人爭取最大利益這個基礎假設下,自殺固然是可供黃考慮的其中一項選擇。但人類做出任何選擇都必然需要付上代價,每人未到最後一刻都不能完全確定自己一生活得幾精采。在決定繼續呼吸下一口氣時,我們的希望只可寄託於對生命前景的預期上。用生命作代價來解決煩惱,黃必然在那一刻覺得他將來一生的價值低過他當其時所面對的苦況,從這角度看,長遠的預期便成為關鍵因素,各位讀者,如果你的朋友在困境中感覺生命無望時,你大可把以下經濟學分析轉告他們。

◆股神也不能預測 一年後恒指◆

  任何長遠預期(longterm expectation)都是不可靠的,在恒生指數期貨或其他外幣期貨市場買賣,來來去去成交量都是集中於將來1至3個月的期貨,香港任何一位股神的法力都不足以預計一年後恒指的水平,沒有正常人會依賴預期美國將來30年每年年均息口來作為投資美國長期債券的理據。

  偉大的劍橋經濟學家凱因斯在他的著作《通論》中對長遠預期有非常生動的分析,任何投資者都是基於自己察覺得到的有限信息來作決定,亦即是說,人類往往都必須在不確定的情況下作決定,企業家的冒險精神得到公認,是基於他們在未能確定自己的企業能否在將來5年,10年繼續生存的情況下,貿然拿出膽識來去創業。

◆遇困境要忍 候新信息改變◆

  世上只會有兩種人不受到有限信息的局限影響,其一是得道高僧,生命裏的所謂不確定元素,對他們來說,只是過眼雲煙,毫不重要。其二是一些無知的人,這些人無知是因為他們自以為無所不知,過分自信。

  凱因斯提出一項假設,普通凡人在未能掌握將來事態發展的情況下作決定時,會試圖假設現況,不斷繼續,直至新信息出現,令我們有理由相信事情會改變為止。這樣,股民只須放眼現時股價的走勢,而不用愁着去揣測10年後的股價而晚晚失眠。

  我們感到身臨困境時,是因為我們假設現況會無止境地繼續下去。但凱因斯的分析,教我們盡量耐心等待。當新信息來臨時,自然會有理由令我們改變想法。

3 則留言:

Joe Chan 說...

The article simply reflects the anger I felt whenever I saw humanity defeated by fate. Life to me is everything colorful (even in the B&W sense) and tasteful whether it be bitter or sweet. We are born to live, even if we have to fight our way through in the battlefield. It is so unfair to have that kid carry such a heavy burden; but it hurts me to see him surrender. He could have left his mother, or dumped his sister. He could have joined some trial society to sell drugs. He could even have robbed a bank. Instead, he did nothing that would ruin his honour. He went forward as a son, a brother and a decent citizen. If I know him, I could have helped. The 'if' is always the devil.

tmreadiy 說...

Everyone has his/her own thinking different than the others. While we praise God for giving us such a wonderful gift of life, others may be blaming her for her evil doings. It's his what we normal people think, " wrong attitude towards life" and his poor luck of not meeting someone like you that ruin his life.Maybe if he had thought about what the lives of his mother and sister will be after his death, he would not have done this dissrespectful action to his own life.
Hong Kongers face too few hardships that if a Hong Konger and an ancient people were left in a remote forest, what the Hong Konger did at once would be using his mobile phone to call someone for help, while the ancient guy will start thinking of ways to save himself--set fire so as to make himeself warm and find sources of water.

Jesus Follower 說...

http://www.chick.com/zh/b5/reading/tracts/0240/0240_01.asp

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